Systemic risk analysis (at crisis)
07 08 2022
Category: seminar
We cordially invite you to the online seminar “Systemic risk analysis (at crisis)”, which will take place on October 27, 2022. The organizers of the event are prof. Marek Trippenbach and prof. Marek Konarzewski.
War is not only a humanitarian catastrophe but also a long-term systemic threat with local and global consequences. By systemic threat (risk) we understand the disturbance of the basic mechanisms of social, economic, and political stability. Interdisciplinary research teams dealing with systemic risk are being formed all over the world, the experiences of which we intend to use in organizing the debate and further activities aimed at inter-disciplinary understanding of systemic risk.
In Ukraine, fights take place in regions that account for over 55 percent of GDP, including in the most industrialized areas. It is estimated that up to half of Ukrainian companies have stopped operating, and fiscal revenues have fallen sevenfold. In the long term, there will be a threat of a civilization collapse, associated with the emigration of a significant number of specialists (brain drain) and the inevitable human losses during the war. For Poland, the war in Ukraine poses a challenge related to an unprecedented number of refugees, a further increase in inflation, and a deterioration in the structure of public debt. National social service systems such as health and education will be particularly hard hit. These threats overlap with the already existing problems related to the “overhang” of native patients (especially chronically ill) caused by delays in diagnostics and therapy arising during the COVID-19 epidemic. Globally, the war has shaken the energy market. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in the world markets increased by as much as 44 percent, which, combined with the reduction of gas supplies, will lead to global inflation of at least a dozen or so percent. There will also be a serious imbalance in world food security, as Russia and Ukraine are ranked 1st and 5th respectively in the world exports of wheat, and are major suppliers of other agricultural products. Apart from inflation, the collapse of supply chains, and energy, the modern war also means confrontation in the digital field and counteracting disinformation. These are just a few examples of system threats that may appear in the near future. Based on the analysis of these phenomena and access to information about real threats, we intend to construct a narrative of the proposed seminar.
Moderator: Marek Konarzewski
A link to the seminar will be made available online a few days before the event.