Workshop “Interdisciplinary and multiple approaches to systemic risks”

19 12 2022

Category: conference, systemic risk, workshops

Photo: Dietmar Rabich / Wikimedia Commons / “Glaskugel — 2022 — 9838” / CC BY-SA 4.0

The workshop will take place on December 20, from 14.00 to 18.00 in hybrid mode – in the conference room at the CSRA office at BUW in Warsaw, Dobra str. 56/66, room 2.90 and via ZOOM (link below).

Topic: Interdisciplinary and multiple approaches to systemic risks

 

Program of the workshop (hybrid):

“Interdisciplinary and multiple approaches to systemic risks”

December 20 th , 2022
CNRS, University of Paris 1, France

Robert Zajonc Institute for Social Studies, University of Warsaw, Poland
Centre for Systemic Risk Analysis, University of Warsaw, Poland
Organizers: Jørgen Vitting Andersen, Andrzej Nowak, Sebastian Szymański

The goal of the workshop is twofold:
To discuss interdisciplinary aspects of systemic risk. Each participant will give a short presentation on topics related to systemic risk. A round table discussion at the end of the workshop will be devoted to discussing the transdisciplinary nature of systemic risk and exploring potential future collaboration and future grant applications.

Tuesday, 20 th December 2022

14.00-14.10: Welcome, Jørgen Vitting Andersen (CNRS, University of Paris 1) & Sebastian Szymański (University of Warsaw)

Session 1: Past and future perspectives of systemic risk

14.10-14.35: Roberto Savona, Economics, University of Brescia, Italy

Towards a financial tomography of the markets: Lessons learned and ongoing research

The talk will outline the major research results on financial systemic risk realized by the EC-funded project SYRTO (www.syrtoproject.eu), also discussing recent developments on dimensional data reduction, big and alternative data, machine learning tools to inspect new forms of financial and economic connectedness.

Session 2: AI and systemic risk

14.35-15.00: Paul Lukowicz, Artificial Intelligence, DFKI, Germany

Ubiquitous AI based on Out of Equilibrium Hybrid Socio -Technical Systems

15:00-15.10 Coffee break

Session 3: The science of systemic risk

15.10-15.35: Hayette Gatfaoui, Economics, IESEG School of Management, and CES,

University of Paris 1, France

Flickering in Information Spreading Precedes Critical Transitions in Financial Markets

Financial markets exhibit sudden changes as many complex dynamical systems. Such tipping points can turn possibly into systemic risk given that a node’s failure can cause another node’s to fail (e.g., causal interconnectedness). By focusing on short-term causality in dynamic temporal networks, we propose a new class of early warning signals of critical transitions.

15.35-15.50: Jørgen Vitting Andersen, Physics, CNRS, University of Paris1

The anatomy of systemic risk

I will give examples of systemic risk in different domains and discuss different tools to predict the failure time of a given system

15.50-16.05: Andrzej Nowak, Psychology, University of Warsaw

Systemic Risk; The perspective of social forces

16:05-16.15 Coffee break

16.15-16.30: Ryszard Praszkier, ISS, University of Warsaw, Poland

Examples of bottom-up autocatalytic social processes in solving crisis social problems

16.30-16.55: Pawel Kaczmarczyk, Economics, Centre of Migration Research, Univ. of Warsaw, Poland
TBA

Session 4: Predicting systemic risk

16.55-17.20: Roy Cerqueti, Statistics, Sapienza University, Italy

Resilience and systemic risk

This talk contributes to illustrate the link between resilience and systemic risk. We develop a network model to compare portfolios of funds which are highly ranked in Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) aspects with those with a poor ESG compliance. The nodes in the network represent funds and the edges are weighted on the basis of the capitalization due to the common components of the connected nodes. We specifically deal with the reactions of the considered financial networks to exogenous shocks of negative financial nature. To this aim, we provide a novel definition of the resilience of a financial network in terms of stability of its community structure. Our methodological framework allows us to infer the systemic risk of the considered set of interconnected funds. We test the theoretical proposal on some relevant empirical instances

17.20-17.35: Jessica Riccioni, Statistics, Sapienza University, Italy

Rational expectations as a tool for predicting failure of k-out-of-n reliability systems

The goal of this research work is to apply rational expectations in the context of the reliability theory, a focal point in economics and finance. We want to estimate the optimal failure time of stochastic systems with interconnected components by proposing a model for evaluating the expected time of failure of these systems from a rational expectations perspective.
Through rational expectations, we can predict failure times on the basis of the knowledge about the past experience of our stochastic systems and condition the results on the information provided by the systems. The failure of any system is related to the failure of its components and the weights of failed components are proportionally reallocated to the surviving components (the so-called reallocation rule).

Session 5: Round table

17.35-18.00: Interdisciplinary perspectives on systemic risk

18.00: End of meeting